The November 5 US presidential elections are a few weeks away, and polls have Democratic candidate Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in a close race. But Wall Street appears to be betting big on a Trump win. Listen to this week’s episode of The Big Take daily podcast with John Authers and David Gura to learn what they think the market is telling us about this election.

Are they known as the world’s most accurate Economists? Christophe Barraud has a track record of correctly forecasting the outcome of US elections. His latest forecast predicts a Republican presidential nominee win with a majority in the Senate and House. He said that that would allow the president to push forward his economic agenda.

He based his forecast on various metrics, including the political landscape and financial market signals. He cited the recent inflow of capital to the US bond market and the yield on the 10-year Treasury hitting a six-month high. Those signals and the low unemployment rate and a stable housing market suggest a Trump-led? GOP clean sweep? Come November 5, he said.

He said a Trump win would boost the US economy in 2025, as the president could implement tax cuts for corporations and households and focus on domestic policy. But he warned that a split Congress could stall his economic policies and push him toward tariffs, which may slow long-term US and global growth.

According to the model he developed with a team of scholars, the Economist’s electoral college projections use national and state-level polling data and fundamental indicators such as the economy, historical voting patterns, and demographics. That allows it to predict which candidates will most likely win each state and the overall electoral college. It also considers the strength of each party’s candidates in states, the relative popularity of each candidate, and other factors.