Russia’s upper house of parliament voted on Thursday to set the date for next year’s presidential election, a move that brings Vladimir Putin one step closer to a fifth term in office. The Federation Council has the constitutional authority to set the date and voted unanimously to approve the decision. “With this decision, we are effectively launching the start of the election campaign,” Valentina Matviyenko, head of the Federation Council, said in a televised meeting.
Despite the bleak economic prospects for the country, many observers expect that Putin will easily win the election. The 71-year-old hasn’t officially announced whether he will run, but six sources told last month that he had already decided to seek a sixth overall term.
If he did decide to run, he would surpass Josef Stalin’s record for the longest tenure as Soviet leader and surpass Empress Catherine the Great’s time in power. Even so, the Kremlin will be wary of a foreign enemy trying to disrupt the vote and the country’s fragile economy.
As such, the election will likely be held with tight security and a high turnout. The Russian Central Election Commission plans online voting in addition to traditional paper ballots and will consider stretching the voting over three days—both measures that critics say limit independent monitors’ access to scrutinize the process.
The Russian government has also outlined several other moves that will make it difficult for opponents to challenge the election results, including limiting the number of voters who can participate in the vote, barring foreign citizens from voting, and requiring registrations to be signed by witnesses. In the past, these steps have been used to prevent the public from casting votes for opposition candidates, as well as to limit the influence of ethnic minorities.
As the Kremlin continues to push for a high turnout, it will likely focus on the most marginalized groups of voters, which include women and young people. In the past, Putin has focused on these groups to bolster support from the most disgruntled sections of the population.
Electoral victories for authoritarian leaders like Putin’s perform vital functions, primarily as a signaling mechanism. Emphatic super-majority victories make it clear to the political elite that there is no alternative to the regime, and they serve as a reminder of the ruthless, unforgiving power of the state. Anyone who has visited a major Russian city at election time will be able to attest to this, as ubiquitous Putin posters are plastering the streets and favorable wall-to-wall media coverage.
During the 1990s and early 2000s, when Putin’s popularity ratings peaked, he relied heavily on this strategy. In the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its conflict with Ukraine, however, he has relied less on this method. The upcoming election may return to the old formula when Putin’s popularity was most directly tied to his ability to maintain stability.
