The US and its allies launched airstrikes on more than a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen, including radar sites, drone launchers, and storage sites, in retaliation for a spate of attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea. The attack represents a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East that have been simmering since the Hamas attack on Israel in early October. It also increases the risk that the conflict could expand into a broader regional conflagration.
The strikes were the largest against the Iranian-backed rebels since the US began its campaign to restore the government of Yemen last November. The attack drew the ire of the UN Security Council, which voted in the strongest terms possible to condemn the Iran-backed rebels for imposing an “embargo” on shipping and impeding freedom of navigation in one of the world’s busiest trade routes.
US officials had telegraphed a response for days, warning that the Houthis would face “consequences” if they continued their attacks on commercial ships. They also pointed out that the strikes targeted only radar systems and drones, not ships or civilians. But that’s of little comfort to sailors aboard the ships that Houthi attacks have hampered over the past six months. They watch radar tracks of incoming drones and have to make snap decisions about whether they represent threats.
The Biden administration is still averse to getting drawn into a war in Yemen, which could derail the fragile truce there and trigger a new conflict across the Middle East. It also has other priorities, like aiding Ukraine after Russia’s invasion and helping to combat the threat of militants in Syria.
That reluctance, however, is likely to give way to growing frustration at the Houthis’ actions and the lack of progress in the negotiations to bring them to a permanent peace. The US has to balance that against the reality that a stable Middle East and the prospect of a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine will serve its interests.
The Houthis will be hoping to continue their assaults on shipping with impunity and that the strikes won’t lead to a more significant military intervention. They have been known to escalate their operations just before or after talks and agreements, hoping the US will back off. But that calculus should change if the US and its allies are willing to take further action in retaliation for the recent attacks on ships. The US has to learn from its mistakes in this region and understand that it cannot continue to underestimate the risks of a potential Houthi escalation. If it does, it will have lost the leverage that might have tipped the scales in favor of a peaceful settlement. Jonathan Panikoff is the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.