Taiwanese voters head to the polls Wednesday in a race that will decide their president and all 113 legislative seats. A winner takes home the presidency by first-past-the-post voting, while all parliamentary seats are won through a proportional party-list vote. Regardless of who wins, both votes will give Beijing an indication of how the public feels about its future direction.
If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stays in power, it could signal that many voters want to eschew further pro-independence policies and focus on economic problems such as soaring rents, aging demographics, and rising inequality. China might interpret that as a sign of little desire for future reunification, which could push it to up the ante militarily.
But if the DPP loses, it will signify that voters have grown tired of the current leadership’s strained relationship with China and are looking for a fresh face to lead them in a new direction. The race is close, with DPP candidate Ko Wen-je and the conservative Kuomintang’s (KMT) avuncular Hou You-yi tied in recent polling.
Both candidates seek to burnish their anti-Beijing credentials, but voters’ top concerns seem more domestic. In surveys, voters mention rising rents and real estate prices (which squeeze young people), soaring energy costs, caring for an aging population, and economic inequality.
The DPP’s Tsai has vowed to continue her administration’s economic policies. At the same time, the KMT’s Hou wants to reassure voters of his ability to manage the island’s delicate balancing act between the US and China. The two sides also fight for the best candidate to address China’s military buildup and assertiveness.
China has recently flexed its military prowess against self-ruled Taiwan daily, sending fighter jets, reconnaissance drones, and naval ships around the island in what its military says is a new form of “grey zone” harassment. The country has warned that it won’t tolerate interference in its internal affairs before the elections, widely seen as a referendum on Beijing’s foreign policy.