On Monday, Syrians awoke to a mix of hope and uncertainty about their nation’s future. In cities that had endured prolonged sieges, residents filled plazas to celebrate, honking car horns and chanting, “God is great!” While many had braced for disaster, the fall of Assad marked a historic turning point for the Middle East. His regime was thrown into disarray following the rapid advance of a militia alliance led by Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda.
His fall will limit Iran’s ability to spread weapons to its proxies, deprive Russia of its Mediterranean naval base, and allow millions of refugees scattered for more than a decade in camps in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan to return home. Nevertheless, the challenge of rebuilding and running a country pulverized by war and hollowed out by global sanctions will be immense. It will require billions in aid. It will also present new leaders with a fundamental choice: Do they want to build a modern state that embraces pluralism, promotes economic opportunity, and gives the public a say in political life, or do they want to recreate Hafez al-Assad’s highly personalized dictatorship of cronies?
The Assads’ brutal suppression of dissent was well documented. A succession of ghastly images cemented the family’s legacy of crushing rebellion with airstrikes and barrel bombs, suffocating civilian populations with chemical attacks, torturing political opponents with electric shocks, starvation, and mutilation.
For much of the conflict, Assad relied on a tight circle of henchmen and cronies to crush the rebels. His brother Maher headed the elite presidential guard and was a key figure in the crackdown on protests, while his sister Bushra ran an extensive business empire. Assad was an ophthalmologist, but he developed his leadership skills by mastering the propaganda machine of television and taking on increasingly authoritarian authority as his popularity grew.
Bashar’s political doctrine was no different from his father’s, built around economic change ahead of democratic reform and favoring a personalized elite. Although he would occasionally promise economic change and even abolish unpopular state monopolies, he also defended his position by referring to the 9/11 terror attacks. In 2012, he proffered a chilling line: “The world should know that we were right all along in our fight against terrorism.”
Now, Syrians must choose how they will build their nation without international guardianship, reshape regional dynamics, and establish a transition of power that reflects a fundamental rupture with Ba’athist doctrine. The United States has a significant stake in this. It must ensure that the next leadership frees itself from Russian and Iranian dependence, does not export terrorism, stops using its territory as a conduit for Hezbollah’s missile threats to Israel, opens up to refugees, and doesn’t treat the country like a cash cow for terrorist groups. This is a critical moment for the region – but it could quickly become a nightmare if poorly managed.
