The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 has been confirmed. However, the exact impact location remains uncertain. As further data becomes available, experts anticipate that the probability of the asteroid posing a significant threat will decrease.

Discovered only weeks ago, the asteroid’s orbit has been carefully mapped. NASA has released details of its trajectory, including its expected close approach to Earth on December 22nd.

According to NASA’s Center of Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid will pass within 1,06,200 miles of our planet. The center is responsible for accurately characterizing the orbits of all known near-Earth objects, predicting their closest approaches to our home planet, and reliably making comprehensive impact hazard assessments supporting the Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA headquarters in Washington.

Scientists have a good idea of the asteroid’s size but will need to make more observations to refine its size. The space rock is thought to measure between 130 and 300 feet across – about the length of two bowling alleys back-to-back or a little shorter than the height of the Statue of Liberty, with the pedestal included. While that’s not nearly enough to destroy human civilization, it would be big enough to cause severe damage if it hit a city. It would release about eight megatons of energy – or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

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Nasa scientists have already prepared for a possible collision. The agency’s upcoming James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March next year to help pinpoint its precise size. Ultimately, they hope to use the data to determine a more accurate trajectory for the asteroid and decrease its chances of hitting our home planet.

The chances of YR4 striking our home are slim, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. The space rock will eventually fade from view, meaning even the most powerful telescopes won’t be able to spot it. However, experts have already begun working out its history in an effort to understand where it might have come from and how solar radiation might influence it as it makes its way around the sun. The asteroid is believed to be a fragment left over from the formation of our solar system more than 4.6 billion years ago. It’s also been studied for potential resources, such as metals and water ice. Nasa’s astronomers will continue to track the asteroid in the months and years ahead, hoping to uncover more details of its likely path, including whether it has the slightest chance of hitting us. This process takes time and will only be more accurate as additional observational data becomes available.