Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will on Friday make his first public comments since the Palestinian group Hamas and Israel went to war. The speech is widely expected to be the most significant statement by Hezbollah since the Oct. 7 attacks that triggered a massive Israeli bombing campaign, a blockade on fuel, and a ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah’s fighters have engaged Israeli forces along the border, where 55 of its men have been killed in the deadliest escalation since it fought a war with Israel in 2006.
The Lebanese militant organization is playing a risky game along the border, where it is engaging with Israeli tanks and artillery in the first large-scale battles between the two countries in decades. Hezbollah’s leadership is trying to balance its commitment to fight the Jewish state, its role in Lebanese politics and the region’s Sunni Muslim community, and its own ideological and logistical obligations to Iran, a key sponsor of the militants.
Hezbollah’s top military commander, Major General Mohammed Musawi, was among the 55 men killed in the fighting. The general, who commanded Hezbollah’s powerful missile force in the 2006 war with Israel, is a seasoned combatant who is considered a master tactician and a brilliant strategist. He is widely credited for Hezbollah’s largely successful defensive strategy in the war and its victory.
Hezbollah’s political chief, Mohammad Raad, meanwhile, has been tasked with keeping the group politically focused and avoiding straying from its core mission of attacking Israel. Hezbollah’s involvement in the Lebanese parliamentary election, which will be held next month, has fueled concerns that it could become more entrenched in Lebanon’s thorny political system and that it would be distracted from its armed fight against Israel.
The 57-year-old Hezbollah leader, regarded as one of the most able rabbis in the Middle East, is a charismatic figure with a deep knowledge of Islam and its mystical traditions and a gift for connecting to people. He has a unique ability to harness his close relations with the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad for Hezbollah’s benefit without incurring widespread criticism in Lebanon. Hezbollah has also benefited from its intimate ties with a regional “axis of resistance” against Israel that is led by Iran, including armed groups in Syria and Iraq.
Some analysts believe that Hezbollah will avoid getting deeply embroiled in a conflict with Israel that could end up destroying the country’s fragile political system. But it may also be compelled to fight for its survival in a region increasingly hostile to Iran and its allies. The conflict is a test of whether Hezbollah can maintain its discipline and stay focused on its core task even as it expands into Syria and beyond in its efforts to advance Iran’s agenda. The group’s leader has said Hezbollah will not abandon the cause of establishing a Shiite theocratic government in Lebanon.
