The yen dropped against the dollar on Friday after Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is leaning toward keeping its key yield control policy unchanged next week. Despite growing global economic uncertainties, this would mark a rare pause in the BoJ’s years of ultra-loose policy. The yen is typically a haven currency during market and economic turmoil.
The report added that five sources familiar with the matter said that many BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy. The central bank may also seek to counter a wave of media and market commentary arguing that a weak yen hurts households by raising living expenses through imported commodity prices.
In its statement after a two-day meeting last month, the central bank said it was watching wage growth closely to assess how sustainable it is for BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to achieve his goal of 2% inflation “resiliently.” The bank will likely continue to emphasize wages’ importance in its policy guidance next week.
Nevertheless, the BoJ will likely face renewed pressure to ease policy if the global economy and stock markets continue struggling. Some investors believe the bank could widen a band within which 10-year government bond yields fluctuate, known as the yield curve control (YCC) policy.
However, this may be challenging for the central bank. The policy limits the range in which 10-year bond yields can rise to 0.5 percent from zero and is meant to arrest market distortions created by its heavy bond buying. If the BoJ allows the 10-year yield to climb, foreign hedge funds will short Japanese bonds and lower the yen.
The central bank has resisted calls to manage the yen’s value because it is not legally allowed to do so, citing fears that trading partners could punish it if it did so. The yen’s weakness is helping the economy by supporting household spending. Still, the yen’s haven status also hurts exporters in a country struggling to recover from a slump following years of deflation.
A weak yen is also damaging the economies of South Korea and Australia, where exchange rate depreciation is pushing up consumer and business prices by increasing the cost of imported goods. This week, the yen’s slide against the dollar also comes as central banks in the United States and Europe appear closer to lifting interest rates, potentially fueling the risk of a stronger repricing of global bond yields. This could also prompt a rethink of the yen’s role as a global reserve currency.