Entering its third year, the conflict in Ukraine has placed the infantry of the 59th Brigade in a challenging predicament. The harsh reality they face is a diminishing pool of soldiers and ammunition to fend off the Russian invaders. According to “Tygr,” a platoon commander using a call sign, the current strength of the Brigade is estimated to be only 60-70% of the initial several thousand men at the commencement of the conflict. The remainder has either succumbed to casualties, injuries, or has been discharged due to factors such as advanced age or illness. Heavy casualties have been compounded by dreadful conditions on the eastern front, where frozen soil turns into thick mud during unseasonably warm weather that takes its toll on soldiers’ health.
As Ukraine’s military situation deteriorates, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been calling on Western allies to speed up the delivery of weapons systems. He has also urged them to help Ukraine buy fighter jets, a request Washington has rebuffed.
But the Kremlin remains committed to a long campaign that could extend Russia’s reach far beyond its borders. In addition to advancing its land and sea forces, Russia has stepped up its missile attacks on cities and military bases in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been able to break the Russian naval blockade by sinking several of Russia’s fleet ships. This has reopened merchant shipping lanes, opening a financial lifeline for Ukraine’s ravaged economy.
The Kremlin has been bolstering Putin’s popular support by casting the Ukrainian conflict as a battle against the expansionist West that is arming Ukraine to weaken Russia. The Kremlin hopes to amplify this message in the March 15-17 presidential election run-up when Putin seeks another six-year term.
Despite the Kremlin’s propaganda, cracks are starting to show within Russia. Thousands of people lined up in freezing temperatures across the country to sign petitions supporting Boris Nadezhdin, a liberal politician who made ending the war his central campaign promise. And although many of the signatures were tossed out by election officials, the display of anti-war sentiment was embarrassing for Putin.
The Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert provides expert insight and analysis on the latest developments in Ukraine, including a weekly assessment of the state of the country’s defenses.
