As he prepares to run for re-electiRussia’s24, President Vladimir Putin is making bold claims that the worst is over for crisis-hit Russia. The Kremlin strongman cites a rebound in the ruble and argues that Western punitive measures over Ukraine are helping the economy. His claim underscores the naiveté of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine.
Since February 24, when Moscow launched Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been forced to confront a series of setbacks. It has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians. Its armed forces are now severely damaged, and the country has been effectively cut off from high-tech imports. Its energy industry is in ruins, and the economic slump has hit its foreign exchange reserves hard.
Yet, despite these setbacks, the Russian economy has demonstrated surprising resilience in the face of an unprecedented avalanche of Western sanctions. Economists are divided on this resilience’s sustainability, but most agree that Russia will likely find it difficult to break free from sanctions. In part, coordinating sanctions took considerable effort, and stakeholders will be willing to bail out once they see a clear return on their investment.
Another reason why it will be difficult for Russia to break out of sanctions is because it needs more direct financial leverage against the West. Many Western moguls have little holdings in the country, and the US Department of Justice has already begun to pursue the assets of oligarchs who have refused to comply with the sanctions regime. In addition, the EU is considering ways to enhance enforcement of the sanctions and make violating them more of a crime.
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the war with Ukraine has consolidated the West and that the Kremlin’s strategy has backfired. While Europeans and Americans do have the Kremlin’s stances on other global questions, they are now more united than ever before in their support for Ukraine and their determination to help ensure that Russia is held accountable for its actions.
Indeed, in recent surveys, the vast majority of citizens in Europe and America have stated that they believe it is essential to assist Ukraine, even if it means a long-term commitment to lethal arms. The same is true of the people in countries such as China, India, and Turkey, who, despite having differences with the West, also view Russia as their avowed adversary. That is an extraordinary turn of events that suggests the era of a US-led global liberal order may be drawing to a close. Instead, the emerging world is likely to be a multipolar one led by friendly democracies and hostile dictatorships alike. And that reality is not something that Putin can change with his soaring rhetoric. He must confront it. This is not a game he can win.
