Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba dissolved parliament Wednesday before the October 27 snap elections, banking on his political honeymoon and a fragmented opposition to lead his scandal-tainted party to victory. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for decades—albeit with frequent leader changes—and is almost certain to win this election. But the 67-year-old Ishiba aims to make it a clean sweep and increase his majority, hoping to boost his power to push through crucial policy goals.
Ishiba, a confessed defense “geek” criticizing the LDP establishment, is a favorite of the party’s younger voters. He has vowed to double defense spending and strengthen military ties with the United States and other allies, rattled by the rise of China and a nuclear-armed North Korea. He has also backed the creation of an Asian version of NATO and called for a more robust response to China or Russia violating Japanese airspace or waters.
Despite his low approval ratings, polls suggest Ishiba will prevail in the race to become Japan’s next prime minister. He defeated Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, a vocal nationalist favored by the LDP’s conservative wing, and former environment minister Yoshihiko Noda, a centrist who wants to shift from Ishiba’s pro-business policies to focus on poverty reduction for the working class.
But experts say an LDP victory is unlikely to herald a change in government policy. Analysts see Ishiba as a pragmatist who would keep the economy moving in the same direction as Abenomics, focus on corruption issues, and seek to strengthen Japan’s ties with the United States and other allies.
But even his most ardent supporters acknowledge that Ishiba’s leadership style could be bruising and confrontational, which may alienate some voters. His decision to dissolve parliament may have backfired, particularly since the LDP is facing the risk of losing a few seats in the lower house, where it currently holds a two-thirds majority. This potential loss could change the political landscape.