McDonald’s last saw a decline in sales nearly five years ago during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its latest earnings suggest many customers still haven’t fully returned. On Monday, the fast-food giant reported a larger-than-expected drop in fourth-quarter U.S. comparable sales, impacted by cautious consumer spending and a brief E. coli outbreak. Sales in its largest market, the U.S., fell 1.4%—the steepest decline since the pandemic forced restaurants to limit operations to drive-thru and delivery. Analysts had predicted a smaller 0.4% drop.
Despite the company’s bleak outlook, McDonald’s shares rose 2.2% on Tuesday as investors cheered better-than-expected profits. However, the stock’s price volatility reflects growing concerns that consumer confidence is faltering and the overall economy is slowing.
That’s bad news for McDonald’s, which gets about half its sales from the domestic market. McDonald’s is battling a complex economic backdrop with consumers cutting back on dining out and shopping. Grocery store prices remain elevated even as inflation cools, and the lower-income segments of the population have pared spending on meals out.
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In response, McDonald’s has leaned into meal bundles and limited-time offers to lure customers. Its $5 meal deal, which it launched in June, has proved a success so far. Management says the deal boosted value perceptions among lower-income customers and increased restaurant visits. It will be extended through December.
But the value message isn’t resonating with everyone. Some consumers see the gimmick as a sign that the chain is trying to exploit them through pricing manipulation. The company’s reliance on discounts, which now account for more than a third of its revenues, could hurt margins in the coming quarters.
Another concern is that McDonald’s hasn’t been able to communicate its value proposition as well as rivals, including Burger King and Wendy’s. According to AB Bernstein restaurant analyst Danilo Gargiulo, it didn’t have a national program to roll out the offer. Other competitors offered a deal of their own, which allowed them to coordinate their efforts and better communicate the value to consumers.
Regardless of the reason, McDonald’s is facing a new reality: Customers are less interested in their food than they are in how companies are perceived to be treating them. That means that unless McDonald’s can find a way to connect with people, it could continue losing business to low-cost grocery stores and fast-casual rivals like Chipotle (CMG.N). And that’s a problem for McDonald’s and the rest of the fast-food industry. But it’s not a problem that can’t be overcome. The industry can do it. It just needs to get creative.