Jia Qingguo, a member of the Standing Committee of the national advisory body CPPCC, said the Chinese government prefers not to comment on the US presidential election because it doesn’t want to be accused of interfering in American domestic politics. But behind closed doors, observers say China’s leadership is preparing for the possibility that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could win the White House in November.
Analysts predict that a Harris administration would be softer on issues that have upset Beijing, such as preventing the sale of advanced technology to China or destabilizing the economy with new tariffs. Unlike Trump, Harris has publicly expressed concern about the risk of a trade war, saying such moves would be like a “Trump sales tax” on middle-class families.
She has also criticized the government for bullying in the South China Sea, where it has sweeping claims of sovereignty. In addition, Harris built her career in California, a state with strong business ties to China. And her running mate, former governor Gavin Newsom, has extensive experience with the country and has established rapport with China’s leaders.
Jia said Harris’s emphasis on the cost of living, housing, reproductive rights, and border control would favor China. China also hopes that officials currently causing friction with Beijing, including Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Anthony Blinken and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy Jake Sullivan, will not continue in her administration.
However, even if Harris is a softer leader than Trump, it’s unclear whether she can reverse the decade-long hardening of American attitudes toward China. “The fundamental question remains the same,” wrote Peking University professor Wang Jisi and Ho-fung Hung in an article published Aug. 1 in the diplomatic journal Foreign Affairs. “The US will seek to maintain supremacy in the world, primarily by suppressing China’s rise, particularly in cutting-edge technology related to military power.”
Observers agree that Harris’s experience with the Democratic Party may make her more likely to cooperate with Beijing, especially if she wins the nomination and receives a Cabinet seat. However, it is unlikely that she can persuade Biden to soften his current tough stance on China.
Despite the lack of clear evidence of a preference for Harris, analysts say that the views of the Chinese general public are divided over the two candidates. A China Institute of Contemporary International Studies survey found that 71 percent of respondents believe they will be better off under Harris. In comparison, 63 percent think they will be worse off with Trump. The majority of those surveyed believe the government should negotiate with both Trump and Harris, while most of those who support Trump say they will vote for him again.
