An index designed to track turns in U.S. business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. The decline was slightly more significant than the median expectation among economists in a Reuters poll for a 0.4% decrease.

The LEI typically peaks about a year ahead of the start of the recession, and its most recent decline suggests that the current expansion may be close to ending, the Conference Board said. The index’s weakness was “fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, higher initial claims for unemployment insurance, and reduced housing construction,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, the senior manager of the Conference Board’s business cycle indicators.

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The Conference Board warned that the slowdown in the economy has several potential causes, including tighter monetary policy, higher prices for oil and other commodities, and uncertainty about the global economy. Those factors are “setting the stage for a moderate economic contraction in the months ahead,” the report said.

But the Conference Board’s latest data don’t necessarily portend a recession anytime soon, and other leading indicators suggest that the slowdown will not be severe. For example, retail sales rose in November and December after a decline in September, suggesting that consumers have yet to pull back on spending out of fear of a coming downturn. The savings rate has been rising, indicating that consumers are not saving out of fear of a recession but rather to invest in their futures and protect themselves from inflation.

Similarly, the pace at which new claims for unemployment benefits are filed is one of the best economic indicators available. During the week ending April 2, the number of weekly new claims surged to its highest level on record, mainly due to workplace lockdowns imposed by businesses to limit the spread of the coronavirus. But a rise in new claims for unemployment benefits doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is on the verge of turning down because unemployment is usually a lagging indicator.