The latest Federal Reserve stress tests showed significant banks have enough money to weather a severe economic downturn, clearing the way for them to pay dividends and buyback shares. But investors still need more clarity about what it all means.
The Fed’s test subjects big banks to a hypothetical market shock that considers operational risk and then spits out a “stress capital buffer” requirement tailored to each firm. It must be at least as significant as Basel’s static “capital conservation buffer,” but it can be more extensive. At 6.3% of its risk-weighted assets, Goldman Sachs’ buffer is the largest in the industry.
This year’s tests were the first to include a scenario in which banks’ trading revenue is cut by 50%, and they also must account for their operational risks. That may explain why the results are more stinging than last year’s. And it’s why many analysts believe the new rules will raise capital requirements by more than the Fed initially estimated.
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The test results, which show in some detail the potential losses banks will face under a severe recession, have caused wrangling over whether and how to disclose them and over how much information is included in the calculation of each bank’s results. Some of the banks’ calculations have been rosier than the Fed’s, which could lead to suspicions that they are overly optimistic about their financial health.
It’s no wonder the banks want to clarify the results. After all, if their forecasts trump the Fed’s, it will be harder for them to justify paying out dividends and repurchasing shares — as they are required to do under Dodd-Frank’s overhaul of banking regulations. And that may feed the perception that they are using their profits to enrich themselves rather than helping the economy by bolstering the banks’ balance sheets.
It’s a tense situation but one that makes sense. Banks need enough capital to absorb the losses that led to the financial collapse that created the 2008 crisis and hundreds of billions in government aid. Ultimately, that’s what the stress tests are designed to do. It isn’t just about preventing bailouts; it’s about keeping the financial system functioning when the economy falters. And that’s a job that should require close cooperation between the Fed and the banks it regulates.