The thawing of relations between Sunni Muslim-ruled Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran could have profound consequences in the Middle East and beyond. Both nations have extensive influence throughout the region, and their hatred has fueled “proxy wars” in countries such as Yemen, where groups backed by either side are fighting each other.
If the two nations reach full normalization, it will mark one of the most significant diplomatic achievements in recent decades. It will also create an opening for the two to join other states in a regional dialogue to achieve what they all claim to desire: enhanced security, expanded trade, and a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Gulf.
Yet it will be challenging for the two to turn the page on their bitter rivalry, especially in light of ongoing frictions in other parts of the world, from Syria’s conflict to the continuing rise of ISIS in Iraq and Afghanistan. The easing of tensions between the two will also likely have consequences for regional stability, including in Yemen and Bahrain, where Saudi-backed forces are engaged in a civil war against Shiite rebels.
The resumption of ties between the two nations will also test how serious both are about not interfering in each other’s internal affairs. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly complained about alleged Iranian support for militant groups in the kingdom’s minority Shiite population and of its interference in the politics of other Middle Eastern states. Iran has similarly accused the Saudis of backing armed rebellion in Yemen and of waging war against the country’s nascent government that has left millions of people on the brink of starvation.
Despite the difficulties, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said on Monday that Tehran is serious about its pledge not to interfere in the internal affairs of Saudi Arabia and will not tie any diplomatic agreements with Riyadh to the relaunching of Iranian missions in the kingdom. He cited “the need to end the war on Yemen” as a critical reason for his stance.
The White House is also pressing for progress in peace between the longtime adversaries. According to a senior White House official familiar with the talks, Brett McGurk, the administration’s national security adviser, met with Saudi officials in Jeddah this week to discuss the process. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential meeting. Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in Maine on Friday, Biden said that he thought “there’s a rapprochement maybe underway” between the two nations. It was his first public comment since meeting Saudi officials in late July. The administration has made reaching a deal the centerpiece of its outreach to the region to break a nearly seven-year stalemate between the two nations.
