Iran will “use all available tools” to retaliate against Israel’s recent strikes on its military facilities, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated on Monday. He emphasized that Tehran intends to deliver a “definite and effective” response to the actions of the “Zionist regime.” Baghaei’s statement came shortly after a high-ranking commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force issued a warning, pledging a “heavy” response if Israel strikes Iran again. Though details were not provided, the warning signals Iran’s readiness to intensify its stance against Israel over recent attacks on Hezbollah—a Lebanese group backed by Iran that has been actively fighting alongside Israeli forces in Lebanon and remains a key regional ally.
Israel’s weekend airstrikes were a rare open escalation in the decades-long shadow war between the two nations, which has been exacerbated by Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza. The strikes also raise fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
Despite the threat of a more significant conflict, Iran is trying to defuse the situation by sending mixed messages about its intentions. For example, reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled he is more interested in a new nuclear deal with the United States to ease crushing international sanctions than retaliating against Israel. The cautious language of Iran’s official post-strike statement Saturday night appeared to offer wiggle room for such a gesture. Its military joint staff said the Israeli planes targeted “enemy radar systems in the provinces of Ilam and Khuzestan and around Tehran.” It emphasized that its defense forces prevented enemy planes from entering its airspace and that damage caused was limited.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ultimate decision-maker, also struck a more measured tone in his first comments on the strike Sunday. He said the attack shouldn’t be exaggerated or downplayed but stopped short of calling for a military response.
But experts say Iran is boxed in by its military limitations, economic constraints from sanctions, and the outcome of the US election that will influence whether it seeks a more diplomatic approach or an all-out escalation against Israel. They also warn that if Israel mounts another large-scale attack on Iran, it could prompt a massive response from Tehran and lead to an all-out war in the region.
On Monday, senior military officials in Israel cautioned against escalation against Iran. They noted that Iran has shown it can survive Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and that a larger-scale attack would risk an all-out conflict with the Iranian regime that could affect all of the region’s inhabitants, including civilians.
Analysts also believe that Netanyahu and his cabinet ministers have been told not to talk to the media, in part because they want to deter Iran from escalation, but more so to keep the Israeli public away from details of the airstrikes to prevent a backlash against Netanyahu’s policy on Iran. A senior government official who did not wish to be identified said the strategy is designed to allow a de-escalation with Iran. At the same time, Israel continues its efforts for a new deal on its nuclear program with the United States.