Over the past few decades, the tourism industry has provided the simple message that distance is no longer a problem and visiting more places more frequently is a positive. However, due to climate change, capacity issues and a change in traveller desires, this message is being challenged. The future of travel will be determined by those destinations and operators who can understand that we are moving away from growth and those who still see environmental and social issues as an inconvenience.
Climate Reality Meets Traveler Demand
The aviation industry is one of the hardest industries to decarbonise. Using sustainable fuels and electrifying short haul flights as well as increasing operational efficiencies will decrease the impact per passenger but if the number of passengers increase to pre 2020 levels we will still see an increase in emissions for years to come. Extreme weather is increasing meaning ski resorts are having shorter seasons.
Islands are seeing more extreme storms and increasing insurance costs and some destinations are no longer so attractive on hot days due to heatwaves. Destinations who previously promoted themselves as being available all year round are now finding it difficult to guarantee this. Some customers are booking as normal but there is a growing market who are looking to travel with climate change in mind. If operators don’t consider this, then they will be providing capacity for customers who will see their demand decline.
Technology as Filter, Not Replacement
Whilst artificial intelligence and real-time data are changing the way we plan our trips the major impact will be for those customers who are looking to visit less. Dynamic pricing, personal recommendations and predictive crowd control can help direct visitors away from busy areas and towards under utilised areas. Virtual and augmented reality can help give visitors a taster and therefore prevent them from taking long haul trips on a whim.
This isn’t preventing physical trips but means that customers are more likely to visit somewhere with a reason. However, with increased personalisation we may see those who do visit become more concentrated towards high scoring experiences. Destinations using data just to increase visitor numbers will find they have more complex issues to deal with.
The Return of Friction as a Feature
Some customers are already looking to travel slower. Taking the train around Europe, staying in fewer locations for longer and travelling to destinations based around the season are becoming more popular. This isn’t due to nostalgia but due to environmental awareness and knowing that constantly travelling doesn’t always give the best experience.
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From a revenue perspective this means those destinations offering high turnover and short stays will see their revenue become less predictable. Destinations who have invested in infrastructure to allow for longer stays (good local transport, diverse accommodation and year round culture/outdoor activities) will benefit as they will see increased spend per visitor.
Capacity, Equity, and the Politics of Access
Over-tourism was an issue prior to the pandemic but will become more of an issue as we move forward. Customers are putting pressure on popular cities and natural attractions as they are experiencing increased house prices, crowded areas and poor quality of life. Policies such as limiting visitors, time restricted entry, pricing and short term rental restrictions will be put in place. Whilst these are often seen as helping protect local communities they are causing issues with fairness as only those who can plan further in advance or pay more will benefit.
Over-tourism means those who want to visit certain places may struggle to do so physically. Who decides those who can visit and how will the economic benefits be shared with those who have traditionally relied upon volume? Destinations who see the wellbeing of locals and visitor experience as conflicting will face continual political issues.
Designing for Durability Rather Than Volume
The most resilient tourism economies over the next two decades will be those who can move away from wanting to increase visitor numbers. This can be achieved through investing in unique experiences that provide value at lower volumes. Providing specialist knowledge based activities, conservation based activities and culturally rich experiences will help.
It is also important to be realistic that not all destinations can or should aim to increase visitor numbers. Some will need to reduce visitor numbers and increase the economic value of those who do visit. Governments and industry bodies who still measure success by how much tourism contributes to the economy (GDP and jobs) without considering environmental and social capacity will get it wrong.
Travel will always be a key part of human life however, we are moving away from assuming we can keep increasing the volumes we visit. The future will belong to those destinations and operators who can embrace the limitations and make them part of their designs. Those who succeed will provide fewer but more meaningful trips whilst those who don’t will find they have already started to fail under the current model.
