The United States has issued a plea to Ukraine to cease its strikes on Russian energy facilities, cautioning that such drone attacks could escalate tensions and elevate global oil prices. According to sources familiar with the matter as reported by the Financial Times, these warnings have been conveyed to senior officials within Ukraine’s state security service and military intelligence directorate, both of which have intensified their drone operations targeting Russia on land and sea. Despite the imposition of Western sanctions, Moscow retains a significant role as a major energy exporter worldwide. The White House is particularly concerned that retaliatory strikes on Ukraine’s oil export infrastructure could trigger similar actions against Western energy facilities.
The recent attacks have contributed to a surge in oil prices, which have climbed nearly 4% since March 12 when Ukraine initiated its targeting of Russia’s energy assets. A continued rise in gasoline prices in the United States could undermine President Joe Biden’s chances of re-election and potentially disrupt domestic economic growth, which is already showing signs of deceleration.
While Kyiv says it aims to hamper Russian funding for war efforts by reducing energy revenues, Russia has said the attacks have had little effect on oil production and only raised the price of electricity. The attacks have also disrupted the power supply in Ukrainian cities. In Kharkiv, the mayor has reported a series of blackouts and power shortages caused by missile strikes against energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the United States is grappling with a deadlock in Congress over $60 billion of aid for Ukraine’s stretched forces. Partisan sparring ahead of the midterm elections threatens to strand the bill. National security adviser Jake Sullivan traveled to Kyiv this week and assured Zelenskyy that Washington was fighting daily to approve the package.
Amid the growing concerns over the impact of the war on global energy supplies, the White House has been mulling options for new sanctions against Russia, including imposing import duties on grain from Ukraine and Belarus. The move could trigger retaliatory tariffs against the West, hurting the economies of countries such as Germany and France. However, the Kremlin has warned that levying such duties could worsen global food security, and many Western banks’ legal departments understand the “catastrophic consequences” if they do so, senior industry sources told the Financial Times.
On the diplomatic front, top diplomats from 40 countries, excluding Russia, will meet in Jeddah for two days this weekend to discuss ways to end the conflict. The summit is expected to address various issues, including economic reform and visa liberalization for Ukrainians. The meeting will be the second of its kind. In June, a summit was held in Copenhagen, Denmark. The FT reported that the participants agreed to establish an international commission to investigate violations and make recommendations on possible future steps. According to a draft statement from the FT, the commission could be established by July. It could include the representatives of the European Union, Ukraine, and the United Nations.
