After two days of deliberations, a New York jury pronounced Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts in his hush money trial. It marked the first time a former US president was tried and convicted in a criminal case.
But the verdict is unlikely to significantly impact the election or its outcome. The judge in the case, Justice Juan Merchan, has broad discretion when it comes to sentencing and could give him a financial penalty instead of jail time. And if he does receive a sentence of up to four years in prison, it won’t keep him from running for president again.
Trump has already declared that he plans to run for a third term as president and has urged his supporters to help him. The conviction, however, could make him a less attractive candidate in 2024. It would also give Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and other opponents more ammunition to criticize his record, particularly his tax cuts, protectionist trade policies, and handling of classified documents and national security information in the White House.
As a felon, he’d be ineligible to vote in Florida, where he lives. But he’d still be eligible to vote in his home state of New York, where felons can cast ballots if they don’t have a felony conviction that would bar them from doing so. He would likely have to register to do so and provide proof of his eligibility.
He’s also facing several civil lawsuits claiming he mistreated women, business partners, and journalists. He could also be hit with multiple federal investigations into alleged election interference and efforts to overturn his 2020 loss.
In the days following his conviction, Trump continued to rail against a “rigged” trial and warned his supporters that he’d be encouraged to take to the streets if he received jail time. But that seems highly unlikely, given his political position.
The trial’s conclusion also dampened Trump’s campaign to convince independent voters who would vote in the election. Many of those voters are upset by his refusal to release his tax returns and his attacks on the media and judiciary. The verdict will also reinforce Democratic arguments that he’s unfit for office and could be dangerous to the country if he becomes president again. Those concerns will only grow if he gets jail time before the November elections. And if he does, the country’s reaction could be more apparent. NBC News’ Dareh Gregorian, Adam Reiss, and Gary Grumbach contributed to this report.
