Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu built his reputation as a security hawk on the back of his service in an elite special forces unit that carried out some of Israel’s most daring hostage rescues. But his legacy as his country’s longest-serving leader will now be shaped by one of the worst security failures it has known and by the fate of more than 200 hostages seized by Palestinian Hamas gunmen from Gaza, who Israel says killed 1,400 people on the deadliest day of its 75-year-old history.
It’s a test of his leadership and authority that could be his most severe yet. His political fortunes are at a low ebb, with polls showing that most Israelis hold him responsible for the failures that led to the escalation. His standing abroad is also eroded as he burns through the goodwill of allies like the United States in his battle over judicial reform. Then there’s the war in Gaza, which has already cost Israel more than 2,500 lives.
As Israel’s military operations drag on, Netanyahu is running out of political space to maneuver. The 74-year-old, who leads a coalition of right-wing parties that includes the extremist Religious Zionism slate and two ultra-Orthodox parties, has managed to avoid a no-confidence vote in parliament, which would force new elections. But if the war drags on, his allies may be forced to rally behind his rivals.
The prime minister has reportedly told his closest confidants that the next three to four weeks will be critical. “Benjamin’s future as Israel’s PM depends on his success in defeating the terrorists and bringing the abducted Israelis home,” said a source close to the prime minister.
But the government has not made it clear how that will be accomplished. Its public focus is firmly on destroying Hamas, ignoring the growing concern that this will push the hostages even further into the hands of the militant group. This stance has led to some protesters, like Gali Mir Tabon, a former police officer who marched outside the defense ministry in Tel Aviv on Sunday, saying that the ministers can discuss their strategy later. Still, first, they need to save the captives.
It’s a dangerous gamble that could backfire. The teetering Israeli economy and the looming threat of a broader regional war are creating pressure to take a more measured approach to the conflict. Moreover, many analysts point to Netanyahu’s decadeslong approach to Hamas as the root cause of this crisis. He has consistently resisted calls to tackle the organization, arguing that its existence foreclosed a negotiated solution with the Palestinians.
