North Korea appears to be preparing for its third attempt this year at launching a reconnaissance satellite, a move that may prove as controversial as the nuclear-armed country’s weapons tests. A report Thursday by the state-run news agency KCNA cited by South Korean officials said the country would launch what is described as a “military satellite” on Nov. 30. The report didn’t say whether the spacecraft would be put into orbit or crash into the Earth. However, officials have warned that any such attempt will be met with harsh international condemnation.
The satellite is part of a push to expand the North’s space capabilities, and Pyongyang has indicated that it intends to place its first spy satellite in orbit eventually. It is seeking to keep an eye on what it sees as hostile moves by the United States and its allies, from joint military drills to the deployment of U.S. warplanes and long-range artillery on the Korean Peninsula, experts say.
But despite the two previous attempts ending in fiery failures when its new Chollima-1 rockets crashed into the sea, the latest launch may be successful, analysts say. Pyongyang could have adapted its existing technology to the new launch pad at Sohae and added a new stage of the rocket to make it more capable. It also might have made a critical engineering adjustment called a dogleg, in which a rocket changes direction after its first-stage engine’s separation, to overcome a significant problem with the May and August launches.
During a party congress in January, Pyongyang leader Kim Jong Un laid out his wish list for the country’s weapons development program and said he wanted to place a military satellite in orbit to give him an advantage over the U.S., which already has such capability.
In early July, a top North Korean official was quoted by the country’s state media as saying the nation needed a space-based reconnaissance system to counter growing security threats from South Korea and the United States. However, outside experts say the type of satellite earlier shown by the North’s state-run media doesn’t appear to be sophisticated enough for military surveillance, which requires high-resolution imagery of small targets such as individual soldiers or vehicles.
Regardless of the success or failure of this mission, it is likely to prompt a harsh reaction from Pyongyang’s international partners, who have warned that another attempt to launch a satellite will violate successive rounds of U.N. resolutions. South Korea, Japan, and the United States strongly condemned the latest move. The White House national security spokesperson says the door remains open for diplomacy but that Pyongyang must end its provocative actions. In a statement Wednesday, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres vowed that “North Korea must fully comply with all relevant United Nations resolutions and stop its ballistic missile proliferation activities.” The U.N. and its member states “will remain vigilant against North Korea’s continued proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” the statement said.